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Dr. Robert Wagner challenged me to refute his attempts to debunk climate change science and the science of human-induced climate warming.

I attended his presentation.

Two impressions:

1.) While he may have a PhD in optometry, he does not understand many fundamentals of atmospheric science. If he actually read the atmospheric and climate science publications from the many peer-reviewed scientific journal articles, as I try to keep up on, he’d be singing a different tune. If he had a PhD in atmospheric sciences, not optometry, I expect he’d not make the many logical flaws I was witness too, flaws that he then packaged as truths. How did he package his “truths”? See point 2 below…

2) Wagner is being selective in his analysis, ignoring points contrary to his position. He’s being selective to prove his point. Selective analyses, as such, rarely make it through peer-review because selective science is pseudo-science. The rare cases in which selective science make it through review represent the sad but rare failure of the peer-review process.

Here’s one example of Wagner being selective.

Wagner is being deceptive by being selective. In his presentation, for example, he cites a NOAA chart with blue lines/symbols (annual averages), red line (multi-year average), and smiley faces he added. The red line indicates the multi-year average, which indicates the recent times are the warmest period in the US on record, even despite the relatively cool 2008 (included in the average). Wagner draws the audience’s attention to the relatively cool 2008 and does not mention the red line. We call short term atmospheric fluctuations “weather”. The average state of weather, we call “climate”. The red line is a better representation of climate, because the noise (extremes, outliers) are compensated by averaging.

Above: figure from Dr. Wagner’s presentation. The horizontal axis represents time in years. The vertical axis is of observed near-surface air temperature averaged over US stations. He ignores the red line which represents the muti-year average. He selectively refers to the relatively low temperature observed in 2008. Note, however, that the multi-year average (the red line) indicates that in recent years, air temperatures are the warmest on record!

Don’t worry Bob, I’ll provide more as I plow through your material. Refuting takes time…

I’m gonna call it a day now.

I just had a most interesting experience…

I was invited to a human-induced climate change skeptic’s presentation.

I agreed to the invitation, though apprehensive of the hostility to my position (I accept the science of human induced climate change).

The host, Dr. Wagner was most polite. The night before I dreamt that we became friends.

Upon meeting, just before the presentation, we emphatically agreed that the search for truth was our common goal, that “scientific consensus” is risky, that skepticism keeps science honest.

Dr. Wagner made his pitch, systematically making most of the classic misperceptions, reflecting a profound misunderstanding of atmospheric physics. I can (and will) refute “essentially all” of his claims. It will take time.

Dr. Wagner spoke for 2 hours. He was emphatic, intense.

The following blog entries will provide detail to refute “essentially all” of his claims.